The Effect of Global Interest Rates on ASEAN Credit Disbursement: ARDL Analysis and Bounds Test

Merdeka Goeyardi, Gema and Alimudin, Arasy and Yulianah, Yulianah (2026) The Effect of Global Interest Rates on ASEAN Credit Disbursement: ARDL Analysis and Bounds Test. Advances in Human Resource Management Research, 4 (3). pp. 572-588. ISSN 29857570

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Abstract

Purpose: This study examines the short- and long-run effects of global interest rates on bank lending across ASEAN-5 countries and evaluates cross-country differences in credit responses to global financial shocks. It further assesses the Global Interest Rate (GIR) hypothesis and the concept of Regional Structured Financial Equilibrium within ASEAN financial systems. Research Method: The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing approach to identify short- and long-run relationships between global interest rates, bank lending, and macroeconomic conditions. Country-level analysis is conducted across ASEAN-5 economies to capture heterogeneous responses within regional credit systems. Results and Discussion: The findings indicate heterogeneous responses of banks to global interest-rate shocks across ASEAN-5 countries. While global interest-rate movements may constrain credit conditions in the short run, bank lending demonstrates more favorable long-run dynamics alongside expected economic growth. The results support the relevance of the GIR hypothesis and regional financial-equilibrium perspective. Implications: Policymakers should consider country-specific credit responses when designing monetary policy, financial-stability policy, and regional coordination policies. Originality: This study integrates global interest-rate transmission, ASEAN-5 credit heterogeneity, and Regional Structured Financial Equilibrium within a unified analytical framework.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions:	Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis > Manajemen
Depositing User:	Repository Administrator
Date Deposited:	03 Sep 2026 04:33
Last Modified:	03 Sep 2026 04:33
URI:	http://repository.narotama.ac.id/id/eprint/2676

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